What is important to know is this. In that initial four-year economic downturn, from 1929 to 1933, there were no fewer than six – six! – quarterly bounces in the GDP data. The average gain in these up-quarters was 8 per cent at an annual rate! But because they proved not to be sustainable, the National Bureau of Economic Research refused to declare that the recession officially ended, even though the stock market rallied 50 per cent in the opening months of 1930 on the belief that the downturn was about to end. False premise.
David Rosenberg
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/experts-podium/this-has-been-no-garden-variety-recession/article1690710/
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